The Long View on AI
Industry Trends, Musings, Venture Capital, Observations, Analysis K H H Industry Trends, Musings, Venture Capital, Observations, Analysis K H H

The Long View on AI

Artificial Intelligence has Officially Become Mainstream

  • From DALL-E-2 to ChatGPT AI tools have hit mainstream potentially improving the productivity of knowledge workers—~2x in the case of AI coding assistant.

AI Training Costs are Declining Rapidly

  • AI training cost declines continued at an annual rate of 70%, the cost to train a large language model to GPT-3 level performance collapsing from $4.6 million in 2020 to $450,000 in 2022.

  • Cost declines should continue at a 70% rate through 2030 according to ARK Invest

Explosion of Innovative AI Startups As Costs of Training AI Decline

  • AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030.

  • At 100% adoption, AI could increase global labor productivity ~$200 trillion, dwarfing the ~$32 trillion in total knowledge worker salaries.

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